Making go/no-go decisions isn't always easy, especially when it comes to marginal weather. Take a look at this scenario, make your decision, and tell us what you'd do by emailing us at scenarios@boldmethod.com.

Let's get started!

The Flight Scenario

You're an instrument-rated private pilot, and you need to fly from Tulsa (KTUL) to Clinton (KCCA) for a meeting. Your plane is in good condition and certified for IFR. It's midday, and conditions to the West are VFR, but become progressively more marginal (MVFR) along your route to Clinton.

You initially planned to take this trip under VFR, but now you're wondering if you should file IFR, or if you should take the trip at all with the developing rain showers toward the east.

You've flown the route a few times before. The small hills of the Upper Buffalo Wilderness provide your only terrain consideration, rising to a maximum of approximately 1000' AGL. Two thin bands of light rain showers cross your route (they're slowly moving West to East). There's currently no risk of icing.

Red dots indicate IFR conditions, blue dots indicate MVFR conditions, and green dots indicate VFR conditions.

Diverting to the north isn't possible due to widespread IFR conditions around Bentonville. Flying to the south means flying into heavier rain showers. The TAF at Tulsa remains VFR, but there's no TAF at or near Clinton. Here's the current weather...

Your Legal Requirements

Your route will be flown during the middle of the day. Depending on how high you want to fly, you'll either be flying in Class G or Class E airspace for the majority of the flight. These are your daytime VFR weather minimums:

• Class G (Below 1,200' AGL): 1SM of Visibility, Clear of Clouds.
• Class E (Under 10,000' MSL): 3SM of Visibility + 500' Below, 1,000' Above, and 2,000' Horizontally Clear of Clouds.

The weather stations along your route indicate that current conditions exceed legal requirements.

Considerations

You're instrument rated and your plane is equipped to fly in instrument conditions, but you initially planned on taking this trip under VFR.

There's no great way to analyze the conditions below the two bands of light rain along your route. There's also an area of rising terrain midway through the route, but the hills only rise about a thousand feet.

You've always considered yourself good decision-maker, and you know you have the instrument skills to stay safe if conditions begin to deteriorate. Because you've flown the route before, you're familiar with the terrain and airports nearby. You don't think this flight will result in "scud running," because ceilings are still relatively high.

What Would You Do?

There's a lot to take into account here, and there's no "correct" answer.

Would you go? Tell us your decision by sending us an email to scenarios@boldmethod.com or leave your comment below to tell us what your go/no-go decision is, and why.